Byzantine Empire Economic Growth: Did Past Climate Change Play a Role?

Abstract

Different chronicles of the Byzantine Empire’s history have noted various economic data gleaned from historical documents and accounts of the Empire’s existence. I provide conjectures on approximate real GDP per capita for the Empire over its existence from AD 300 to 1453. I use these to investigate whether climate forcing variables are associated with real GDP per capita fluctuations. Some hypotheses on factors that would have affected Byzantine economic performance are tested using climate/environmental factors in time series regression. The results support and confirm some findings on how the Byzantine economy may have been affected by periods of regional climate change.