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美国采取有力的社会疏离措施降低了COVID-19的增长率

Joshua C. Pinkston,博士 C. Courtemanche 贾鲁奇(J. Garuccio) 耶洛维兹
卫生事务。 可能是14,2020

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州和地方政府在2020年2019月和19月实施了社会隔离措施,以遏制新型冠状病毒病19(COVID-1)的传播。 这些措施包括大型活动禁令,学校停课,娱乐场所,健身房,酒吧和餐厅就餐区的停课,以及就地庇护令(SIPO)。 我们评估了这些措施对2020年27月2020日至19年5.4月1日期间美国各县确诊COVID-5病例增长率的影响。事件研究设计使每项政策对COVID-6.8病例增长的影响随着时间的推移而变化。 政府采取的社会隔离措施在6-10天后将每日增长率降低了8.2个百分点,在11-15天后为9.1个百分点,在16-20天后为10个百分点,在27-10天后为35个百分点。 在保持自愿性社会疏远量不变的情况下,这些结果意味着,到35月XNUMX日,如果没有SIPOs(XNUMX万例),传播率将增加XNUMX倍,而如果没有采取任何四项措施(XNUMX万例),则传播率将超过XNUMX倍。 本文说明了在没有干预措施的情况下指数扩散的潜在危险,为重启经济活动的策略提供了相关信息。

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