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油价和城市住房需求

赵卫华,博士 拉尔森
房地产经济学。 四月1,2020

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我们开发了一个单中心,石油输出城市的模型。 由于综合生产者价格和运输成本效应,该模型预测房价梯度的“扭曲”(旋转与水平偏移相结合)与油价变化。 实证结果支持这些预测,房屋价格变化与专门从事石油和天然气相关行业的城市的石油价格正相关,并在所有城市的郊区负相关。 这些结果量化了与城市内部和城市之间的油价变化相关的房价的巨大和不同风险。 总体而言,估计显示石油价格的50%变化导致在一个专门从事石油生产的城市(出口就业份额为15%)的五年内全市房价变动50%,而房价则为距离市中心大于15英里的单位在相同时期内的相对变化为-1.5%。

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