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波旁国家的坏消息:酒精禁令是否会鼓励甲基苯丙胺的生产?

南方经济学报。 三月1,2018

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本文探讨了当地禁酒令对甲基苯丙胺实验室流行程度的影响。 在肯塔基州的县中使用多种数据来源,我们比较了潮湿,潮湿和干燥县的各种甲基化制造措施。 我们的首选估算通过利用1930之间的县宗教成分差异来解决当地酒精政策的内生性,当时大多数地方选项投票和近年来都是如此。 即使控制当前的宗教信仰,国家禁酒令结束后的宗教组成强烈预测目前的酒精限制。 我们仔细检查了我们的识别假设的有效性,并考虑在其他假设下进行识别。 我们的研究结果表明,如果所有县都变湿,肯塔基州的甲基实验室缉获量将减少35%。

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